Socialist Resistance Forum: Is the Crisis Over?

Speaker: Raphie de Santos of the Scottish Socialist Party

Tuesday 20th October, 7.30pm, Bennetts Bar, Bennetts Hill, Birmingham City Centre

Two years after the credit crunch and one year after the collapse of Lehman’s there is talk in the media that the biggest economic and financial crisis is over. Stock markets around the world have increased in value by over 40% since their low point in March 2009.

But the financial system globally remains badly polluted, with UK banks writing off 36 billion pounds of losses on the first half of 2009.

Consumer credit, which was the main driving force of the long period of economic expansion which started at the beginning of the eighties, has collapsed and dried up. Of the near 150 billion pound that the Bank of England has pumped into the banking system – on top of the 150 billion that the government has used to bail out the banks – only about £2bn has flowed through to the consumer, mainly through mortgage loans giving a slight upward support to house prices. The rest is being held by the banks against future potential losses.

Western Economies

In the US consumer credit is collapsing, with a fall of over 20 billion dollars from June to July of this year. Economists estimate that two thirds of the US economy is driven by consumer credit. The economies of the Japan, France and Germany – less polluted by the bank crisis – have seen a modest upturn in their economies. They have had more money to spend on stimulating spending. But new capital requirements for these countries will mean that their governments will have to spend more on bank bailouts in future. The banks in these countries have huge exposure to emerging market property bubble. However, inventories being restocked and the clash for clunkers scheme is seeing a one – off slight upturn in production in the major economies.

China

In China a massive infrastructure spending programme and $3 trillion of new consumer loans has technically kept it out of recession. But tens of millions have lost their jobs and much of the consumer loans have fuelled a property and stock market bubble.

Global Crisis

Unlike the crisis of 1929 this financial one is global and much more complex. There is a ball and chain of debt hanging from the system of $700 trillion of unregulated derivatives as well as ten of trillions of pounds of credit linked to houses, consumers, property speculation and corporate speculation. With overvalued stock markets there is the potential for another black autumn.

Governments worldwide have to raise billions of pounds to pay for the bailouts and quantitative easing programmes. In the UK they have spent 25% of our annual income (GDP). They are going make us pay for this by cuts in public services, benefits and tax rises.

What demands should socialists put forward in these circumstances that can halt the financial crisis and create a just sustainable economy?

Raphie de Santos, an economist and member of the Scottish Socialist Party introduces such a discussion.

Socialist Resistance Forum: Imperialism and the Crisis in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Speaker: Naeem Malik of South Asian Alliance

Tuesday 15th September, 7.30pm, Bennetts Bar, Bennetts Hill, Birmingham City Centre

“We need to put the most heavy possible pressure on our friends in Pakistan to join us in the fight against the Taliban and its allies,” Richard Holbrooke, the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, told a congressional committee. He went on to say “We cannot succeed in Afghanistan without Pakistan’s support and involvement.” Richard Holbrooke made these remarks during his appearance in front of the congressional committee in June 2009. His statement coincided with the military operation in the North and West of Pakistan bordering Afghanistan. The military operation resulted in over two and half million people displaced.

The Pakistan Military operation has displaced over 2.5 million people in the region. The focus of the war on terror, according to the US, has moved from Iraq to South and Central Asia, particularly, Afghanistan and Pakistan. For the US to stabilize the Afghan adventure Obama has doubled US troops in Afghanistan. To sustain this increase US needs to protect and improve its supply lines through Pakistan. It has therefore forced Pakistan to initiate military operations within Pakistan. Those who desire peace and prosperity in Pakistan, the region and globally therefore need to seek US’s early departure from the region as a first priority. Only then can the region begin to return to a sustainable peace. The alternative of supporting the US and attempting to help maintain US presence in Afghanistan would only prolong and extend the conflict in the region and more likely to a bloody civil war in Pakistan that perhaps has already started. The importance Pakistan will play in this phase of the war is emphasised by the change in name from Afghan War to AFPAK war. Also, Gordon Brown and Miliband both have been emphasising the danger Pakistan poses to Britain in the form of acts of terrorism. This again, was emphasised earlier this year when some ten Pakistani students were arrested under anti-terror laws in Manchester and Liverpool.

For sometime now the US and its allies have been telling the world that they have more or less achieved their mission in Iraq and that they are now ready to withdraw their forces from Iraq and direct them towards Afghanistan and Pakistan as these two countries now pose the major threat to US and UK’s national security. According to Gordon Brown, UK’s Prime Minister, Pakistan poses a greatest threat to UK’s national security. UK has now withdrawn most of its active troops from Iraq. US needs to increase its supply to cope with the increasing numbers of troops it is sending into Afghanistan. Some seventy percent of all supply to NATO and allied forces in Afghanistan go through Pakistan. These supplies through Pakistan are under constant attack by the insurgents. Many of the trucks carrying US supplies towards Afghanistan have been burned in Pakistan by the forces supporting resistance in Afghanistan. Sometimes the whole depots holding essential supplies have been burnt to ground and supply lines closed for several days.

The AFPAK war has all the makings of lasting a long time. Some in United States are predicting it  may last thirty years. We must remember the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan some thirty years after their withdrawl Afghanistan has not yet returned to anything resembling peace. The US’s war on terror has moved into a new phase and in this phase Pakistan will not just be the facilitator for the war in Afghanistan but will be the arena in which this war will be fought. As refugees move to other parts of the country from regions where Pakistan military has started operations peace is threatened in all parts of the country. The refugees, as they come into other parts of the country bring with them the resentment of what has been done to them. Some would have lost their loved ones. Many would find it difficult to even provide a meagre existence for the families. The competition to earn a livelihood between the refugees and the settled population would be the cause of some of the ethnic warfare that will rage in some of Pakistan’s major cities like Karachi.

This forum will discuss the developing crisis and how we can help stop the escalation of the US/UK war drive in that part of the world.

USA and UK forces out of the whole region!

The ‘war on terror’ is a war of terror against the people of Afghanistan and Pakistan

Video Part 1

Video Part 2