Socialist Resistance Forum: The Soviet Intervention in Afghanistan – a Socialist analysis

The Fourth International in Britain

Speaker: Alex Miller

Tuesday 23rd February 7.30pm, Bennetts Bar, Bennetts Hill, Birmingham City Centre

Afghans burying their dead. The kind of picture you do not see in the British media. This is the end result of decades of western meddling.

By any standard, contemporary Afghanistan is a nightmare: a country wracked by war and poverty. Over 8 years after the US-led invasion in October 2001, the resurgent Taliban is able to launch large-scale attacks even with the coalition “stronghold” of Kabul; Afghani civilians have died in countless numbers; coalition casualties a sharply escalating, with the number of British dead now exceeding that in Iraq; drug production is rife; and women’s rights, along with any genuine democratic reform, remain a distant illusion.

How did this mess come about?

Speaking on the Radio 4 Today programme on December 24 2009, former ITN newsreader Sandy Gall gave voice to a standard line often repeated in the corporate media: the roots of the current debacle in Afghanistan lie in the Soviet invasion of the country in 1979 in the service of communist “expansionism”. The invasion accidentally gave rise to a reactionary Islamic resistance, thus forming the basis for the Taliban and its harbouring of Al Qaeda.

In this forum, this ruling-class fable will be exposed as a myth.

In April 1978, the radical leftist People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) overthrew the nominally democratic republican government of Mohammad Daud, a government which in fact left the former royal family occupying a prominent role in Afghanistan’s affairs, and which fostered close relations with the reactionary and brutal regimes of the Shah in Iran and General Zia ul-Haq in Pakistan. The PDPA began a campaign of modernising the country, including radical land reform, a mass literacy campaign, and the promotion of rights for women.

Fearful for its influence in the region, the Carter administration in the White House launched a vicious campaign to undermine the fledgling leftist state – with the aim of drawing the neighbouring Soviet Union into an unwinnable war and a “Russian Vietnam”. As we will see, the people of Afghanistan are still paying the price for Carter’s decision.

PDPA women demonstrate

If you need further information prior to the meeting:

Contact Stuart on 0777 594 2841 or visit http://birminghamresist.wordpress.com/ for Birmingham Socialist Resistance.

For Socialist Resistance nationally:

Phone: 020 7346 8889
Website: http://socialistresistance.org/
Address: PO Box 62732 London SW2 9GQ
Email:  (contact at socialistresistance dot org)
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=22716335792

For our international website visit www.internationalviewpoint.org/

Socialist Resistance Forum: Overcoming Zionism

Socialist Resistance Forum: Overcoming Zionism

Speaker: Joel Kovel

Tuesday 19th January 7.30pm, Bennetts Bar, Bennetts Hill, Birmingham City Centre

Map of Israel

One State Solution

The Apartheid Wall

Israeli Surveillance

Joel Kovel is a US academic and political activist. He was co-author of The Eco-Socialist Manifesto, and is editor in chief of the journal Capitalism, Nature and Socialism and  a leading member of the US Green Party. In 2009, Bard College in New York failed to renew his contract as professor of Social Studies (a post he had held for twenty years) following right-wing attacks on his book Overcoming Zionism: Creating a Single Democratic State in Israel/Palestine. His other books include; The Enemy of Nature: The End of Capitalism or the End of the World?, Red hunting in the Promised Land, and White Racism; A Psychohistory.

Video of the meeting: Part 1:

http://www.blip.tv/file/3118434

Socialist Resistence Forum: Copenhagen and Beyond

Speakers: Derek Wall – of the Green Left and Roy Wilkes – Secretary of the Campaign against Climate Change, Trade Union Committee

Tuesday 15th December 7.30pm, Bennetts Bar, Bennetts Hill, Birmingham City Centre

Sink or Swim in 2010

World leaders, aided and abetted by the media, are doing their best to dampen expectations of a binding climate treaty emerging from the UN talks in Copenhagen this December. For any treaty to be meaningful it would have to include the United States, and Obama has all but given up hope of getting a climate bill through Congress in time. Therefore the most likely outcome of the UN talks is some sort of fudge, a woolly British section of the Fourth International statement of political agreement and a vague commitment to continue working towards a treaty.

Even if a treaty were to be agreed, it would fall far short of what is needed. The best case scenario of the Copenhagen talks would be a treaty based on carbon trading, just as the Kyoto protocol was. Creating a world market for CO2 emissions will undoubtedly make some people very rich, but one thing it won’t do is prevent catastrophic climate change.

We need to be very clear that climate change is a crime. It is a crime of the rich against the poor, of capital against humanity. Thousands of people in East Africa and South Asia are dying now because of this crime and, unless serious action is taken very soon, the death toll will run into millions. Carbon trading allows killers to carry on killing, as long as they pay others to kill a little less on their behalf. It is morally indefensible, it hasn’t worked up to now, and it won’t work in the future.

The real solution to climate change is far simpler. We need to leave fossil fuels in the ground and organise rational, sustainable production based on creating millions of jobs in construction (in particular mass insulation of housing), renewable energy, public transport and other related sectors. Solving the climate crisis could therefore be a central part of solving the economic crisis. Business as usual, even if it is supplemented with carbon trading, will only lead to more of the same and worse.

But if world leaders and the corporations they represent can’t see beyond business as usual, millions of ordinary people can. They too will be represented at Copenhagen, not by official delegations in the UN negotiating rooms, but by tens of thousands of protestors on the streets. And it will be this mass movement, of ordinary people who are tired of waiting for world leaders to solve this severest of all problems, that will mark the real turning point in world history this December.

If you can make it to Copenhagen on 15th December for the Global Day of Action then do so. If not, at the very least come to London for the national climate march on 5th December.

Videos of the meeting:

Part 1:

http://www.blip.tv/file/3035388

Part 2:

http://www.blip.tv/file/3047875

Part 3:

http://www.blip.tv/file/3051687

Part 4:

http://www.blip.tv/file/3047905

Socialist Resistance Forum: The General Election & the Left

Socialist Resistance Forum: The General Election & the Left

Speaker: Alan Thornett – Respect National Council and Socialist Resistance

Tuesday 17th November, 7.30pm, Bennetts Bar, Bennetts Hill, Birmingham City Centre

Despite the collapse of the thirty year neo-liberal project, the three main parties are promising more of the same. No matter how much the right wing crusade has fallen into discredit, they have on offer; war, destruction, unemployment, public service cuts, wage cuts, privatisation, racism, repression and surveillance and a lack of affordable housing for working people. The differences between these parties are of degree, not of substance. Labour are putting in (inadequate) fiscal stimuli, whereas the Tories would let the market rip. But all three are united on the cuts and making the working class pay for the crisis . . . .

Don’t worry, here comes the New Labour Titanic to save us from Global Warming! If they are allowed to get away with it, the damage and chaos they create will cause even greater misery and provide more opportunities for the far right. But this is by no means inevitable. The capitalist onslaught can, and must be, stopped by mass opposition. Strikes, rallies, demonstrations and occupations need to become the order of the day. It is not a question of going back to the seventies, it is a question of going forward towards a new society; one based on public need and not on private profit. We will not get there because of the actions of great leaders, we will get there by the kind of mobilisations that almost brought Blair down in 2003, that broke the Poll Tax in 1990, that won the recent college dispute in London and that challenged the right of factory owners to do as they please at Visteon and Vestas.

Organisation

When in struggle, working people normally have numbers and militancy on their side, but what is often lacking is organisation, solidarity and leadership. This forum will concentrate on one aspect of all this, the need for a new political party of the oppressed.

The General Election

It is important that there is a viable left challenge at the General Election. While there are a small number of left Labour candidates worth backing, a vote for them is also a vote for the Brown (or whoever replaces him) leadership. If you have a right wing Labour candidate, you get the worst of both worlds. And while no one wants to see the Tories win, it is totally insufficient to have a strategy of just voting

Labour

It is now very late for the whole of the left to construct a united team of candidates, but even now any moves towards unity will be welcome. One such opportunity will be at the conference to be hosted by the RMT in London on November 7th. The backing of one of the country’s strongest unions would be a real spur towards unity against New Labour. On November 14th, there will be the Respect conference in Birmingham. It has the biggest electoral footprint on the left, and has the possibility of doing very well, or even winning, in three Westminster seats.

(Socialist Resistance will be backing these challenges). Then there is Dave Nellist in Coventry, Caroline Lucas in Brighton, and a few other areas where the left could do well.

The forum will discuss the outcome of the two conferences mentioned above and other developments towards left unity before the election, and how we can most aid the success of the candidates already in the field.

Latin America has swung left over recent years. Can we do likewise over here?

Videos of the meeting:

Introduction & Part 1

Part 2

Part 3 and the summing up

Socialist Resistance Forum: Is the Crisis Over?

Speaker: Raphie de Santos of the Scottish Socialist Party

Tuesday 20th October, 7.30pm, Bennetts Bar, Bennetts Hill, Birmingham City Centre

Two years after the credit crunch and one year after the collapse of Lehman’s there is talk in the media that the biggest economic and financial crisis is over. Stock markets around the world have increased in value by over 40% since their low point in March 2009.

But the financial system globally remains badly polluted, with UK banks writing off 36 billion pounds of losses on the first half of 2009.

Consumer credit, which was the main driving force of the long period of economic expansion which started at the beginning of the eighties, has collapsed and dried up. Of the near 150 billion pound that the Bank of England has pumped into the banking system – on top of the 150 billion that the government has used to bail out the banks – only about £2bn has flowed through to the consumer, mainly through mortgage loans giving a slight upward support to house prices. The rest is being held by the banks against future potential losses.

Western Economies

In the US consumer credit is collapsing, with a fall of over 20 billion dollars from June to July of this year. Economists estimate that two thirds of the US economy is driven by consumer credit. The economies of the Japan, France and Germany – less polluted by the bank crisis – have seen a modest upturn in their economies. They have had more money to spend on stimulating spending. But new capital requirements for these countries will mean that their governments will have to spend more on bank bailouts in future. The banks in these countries have huge exposure to emerging market property bubble. However, inventories being restocked and the clash for clunkers scheme is seeing a one – off slight upturn in production in the major economies.

China

In China a massive infrastructure spending programme and $3 trillion of new consumer loans has technically kept it out of recession. But tens of millions have lost their jobs and much of the consumer loans have fuelled a property and stock market bubble.

Global Crisis

Unlike the crisis of 1929 this financial one is global and much more complex. There is a ball and chain of debt hanging from the system of $700 trillion of unregulated derivatives as well as ten of trillions of pounds of credit linked to houses, consumers, property speculation and corporate speculation. With overvalued stock markets there is the potential for another black autumn.

Governments worldwide have to raise billions of pounds to pay for the bailouts and quantitative easing programmes. In the UK they have spent 25% of our annual income (GDP). They are going make us pay for this by cuts in public services, benefits and tax rises.

What demands should socialists put forward in these circumstances that can halt the financial crisis and create a just sustainable economy?

Raphie de Santos, an economist and member of the Scottish Socialist Party introduces such a discussion.

Socialist Resistance Forum: Imperialism and the Crisis in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Speaker: Naeem Malik of South Asian Alliance

Tuesday 15th September, 7.30pm, Bennetts Bar, Bennetts Hill, Birmingham City Centre

“We need to put the most heavy possible pressure on our friends in Pakistan to join us in the fight against the Taliban and its allies,” Richard Holbrooke, the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, told a congressional committee. He went on to say “We cannot succeed in Afghanistan without Pakistan’s support and involvement.” Richard Holbrooke made these remarks during his appearance in front of the congressional committee in June 2009. His statement coincided with the military operation in the North and West of Pakistan bordering Afghanistan. The military operation resulted in over two and half million people displaced.

The Pakistan Military operation has displaced over 2.5 million people in the region. The focus of the war on terror, according to the US, has moved from Iraq to South and Central Asia, particularly, Afghanistan and Pakistan. For the US to stabilize the Afghan adventure Obama has doubled US troops in Afghanistan. To sustain this increase US needs to protect and improve its supply lines through Pakistan. It has therefore forced Pakistan to initiate military operations within Pakistan. Those who desire peace and prosperity in Pakistan, the region and globally therefore need to seek US’s early departure from the region as a first priority. Only then can the region begin to return to a sustainable peace. The alternative of supporting the US and attempting to help maintain US presence in Afghanistan would only prolong and extend the conflict in the region and more likely to a bloody civil war in Pakistan that perhaps has already started. The importance Pakistan will play in this phase of the war is emphasised by the change in name from Afghan War to AFPAK war. Also, Gordon Brown and Miliband both have been emphasising the danger Pakistan poses to Britain in the form of acts of terrorism. This again, was emphasised earlier this year when some ten Pakistani students were arrested under anti-terror laws in Manchester and Liverpool.

For sometime now the US and its allies have been telling the world that they have more or less achieved their mission in Iraq and that they are now ready to withdraw their forces from Iraq and direct them towards Afghanistan and Pakistan as these two countries now pose the major threat to US and UK’s national security. According to Gordon Brown, UK’s Prime Minister, Pakistan poses a greatest threat to UK’s national security. UK has now withdrawn most of its active troops from Iraq. US needs to increase its supply to cope with the increasing numbers of troops it is sending into Afghanistan. Some seventy percent of all supply to NATO and allied forces in Afghanistan go through Pakistan. These supplies through Pakistan are under constant attack by the insurgents. Many of the trucks carrying US supplies towards Afghanistan have been burned in Pakistan by the forces supporting resistance in Afghanistan. Sometimes the whole depots holding essential supplies have been burnt to ground and supply lines closed for several days.

The AFPAK war has all the makings of lasting a long time. Some in United States are predicting it  may last thirty years. We must remember the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan some thirty years after their withdrawl Afghanistan has not yet returned to anything resembling peace. The US’s war on terror has moved into a new phase and in this phase Pakistan will not just be the facilitator for the war in Afghanistan but will be the arena in which this war will be fought. As refugees move to other parts of the country from regions where Pakistan military has started operations peace is threatened in all parts of the country. The refugees, as they come into other parts of the country bring with them the resentment of what has been done to them. Some would have lost their loved ones. Many would find it difficult to even provide a meagre existence for the families. The competition to earn a livelihood between the refugees and the settled population would be the cause of some of the ethnic warfare that will rage in some of Pakistan’s major cities like Karachi.

This forum will discuss the developing crisis and how we can help stop the escalation of the US/UK war drive in that part of the world.

USA and UK forces out of the whole region!

The ‘war on terror’ is a war of terror against the people of Afghanistan and Pakistan

Video Part 1

Video Part 2

Birmingham Socialist Resistance open letter to the Birmingham Socialist Left

• No to a massive assault on jobs, wages, pensions and welfare!
• For a joint socialist left General Election Campaign in Birmingham!
• Support the Respect Candidate in the Sparkbrook by – election!

A government commission in the Irish republic has recommended cutting 17,500 public sector jobs (equivalent to a cut of 300,000 in Britain), cuts in wages, pensions and a 20% cut in child benefit. These measures are supported by all the mainstream parties including the Greens.

David Davis, former shadow Home Secretary writing in the Sunday Times 26.7.09  proposed axing “middle class welfare” including child benefit and the pensioners’ winter fuel allowance – starving the kids and freezing the pensioners!!

These policies will be implemented with a vengeance by a future Tory or Tory/Liberal coalition government or even by a New Labour government in the extreme unlikelihood of it being elected.

The capitalist politicians have really no alternative since they accept the existing distribution of wealth and income which is inherent in the British capitalist system. They will not propose a real distribution of wealth and power but will allow the bankers and big capitalists to get fat bonus and enormous dividend payments as usual.

There have been various moves towards left unity in the past; from the Socialist Alliance to Respect, the call from the Socialist Party and more recently from the Socialist Workers Party and the unity shown during the recent No2EU campaign. This had the vital backing of the most militant trade union, the RMT, as well as other left forces. Yet it must be recognised that Respect still has the largest electoral footprint, with one MP and 10 councillors nationally, and is a serious electoral force in this city.

We think it is urgent the socialist left come together to mount a serious challenge to the consensus for the need for drastic public expenditure cuts at the next general election. Even a campaign standing in 20 -50 constituencies, stating opposition to these cuts and promoting workers’ action such as the Vestas occupation, will encourage resistance to these austerity measures when they are introduced by a future Tory government.

The main themes of the socialist election campaign should be as follows;

1. Opposition to the planned austerity measures; cutting jobs, wages, pensions and social benefits. Support     for workers action, legal and illegal strikes and occupations.

2. Defence of the environment; urgent and radical action to combat global warming.

3. Troops out of Afghanistan and Justice for the Palestinian people.

4. Opposition to racism, fascism and Islamophobia.

5.   For a proportional system for the election of MPs.

We also are making two specific proposals;

1.     Mobilise now to support the Respect candidate, Shokat Ali, in the by- election in  Sparkbrook due in September. Match words with action! Ring  0781 217 2885 to help.

2.     A meeting should be called between all organisations and individuals who support a    joint socialist electoral challenge in Birmingham at the General Election. If progress is   made with this, a launch rally featuring national speakers from the organisations and individuals involved could be held.

Socialist Resistance Forum: Crisis in the Irish Economy and Worker’s Resistance

Speaker: Raynor Lysaght of Socialist Democracy in Ireland

Tuesday 25th August, 7.30pm, Bennetts Bar, Bennetts Hill, Birmingham City Centre

Summary: The Irish Economic Crisis and the potential  resistance

When the 26 counties freed themselves politically from Britain they formed an under-developed agricultural state. With limited resources of coal and none of iron ore, Ireland could not have been a player among the North Atlantic industrial economies that controlled the world. Centuries of foreign domination and landlordism aborted an economy based on agricultural production. Most capitalists developed as small scale usurious traders or gombeenmen. The most enterprising followed the example of the disappearing landlords to make their fortune abroad.

Northern Ireland was different: there local capital had been able to build and maintain an intensive, if localized industrial economy dependent on Scottish coal and the use of religious sectarianism as a productive force. In 1921 it had reached the height of its development and has been declining steadily ever since, becoming essentially a client economy of the British state.

The new Free Sate’s chief product was live cattle. Its first government accepted this, concentrating on agriculture, with little consideration of the possibilities of its side products. Then, from 1932, for a quarter of a century, general industrial neglect was replaced by blanket protection. Obviously, by 1957, this was not maintaining employment levels and tariffs were dropped as casually as they had been adopted. The protected industries disappeared, replaced by foreign firms attracted by generous bounties and, above all, by low wages.

It became clear that, to continue, this low wage economy had to pay still lower wages. Then the northern struggle exploded. After Bloody Sunday, 1971, workers began to occupy British factories. They were diverted into burning the British Embassy, but the situation did not allow successive governments to use capitalist methods to save the economy. Instead they tried to buy off the revolution. Only after ten years had shown that the Republican movement would not, and no other force could turn the national struggle into social revolution, did twenty-six county governments face a much deteriorated problem and try to solve it at the expense of the workers.

From 1987, the economy was rebuilt as a partner in international finance capitalism, aided by grants from what is now the European Union and an open doors policy to unorganised workers from Eastern Europe. Corporation tax was cut and health and education cut even more. From 1997, personal tax was cut further. Unemployment fell. However, by 2001, it was clear that this could not continue. Foreign investment was going to Eastern Europe. The government turned again to priming the pump and financed the building boom that collapsed last year. Now unemployment is 400,000 and projected to be 500,000 in 2010, while state debt is E10 billion and rising. New welfare cuts have been imposed and more are promised.

Overcoming this will be posed in the remainder of the talk.

Videos of the meeting:

Part 1:

Part 2:

Socialist Resistance Forum: Marxism, Anarchism and the State

Speaker: Alex Miller

Tuesday 21st July 7.30pm, Bennetts Bar, Bennetts Hill, Birmingham City Centre

In a sense, Anarchists and Marxists share the same goal: a society in which there is no independent state power standing over and above the free association of working people. So what is the difference between Marxist and Anarchist views of the state?

In this forum, we’ll approach this question by examining Lenin’s views, as expressed in one of the classics of Marxist literature, The State and Revolution. In The Communist Manifesto (1847-8) Marx and Engels wrote:

• “The bourgeoisie has at last, since the establishment of modern industry and the world market, conquered for itself, in the modern representative state, exclusive political sway. The executive of the modern state is but a committee for managing the affairs of the whole bourgeoisie.”

Later, in the same work, they continue:

• “The first step in the revolution by the working class is to raise the proletariat to the position of ruling class, to win the battle of democracy. The proletariat will use its political supremacy to wrest, by degrees, all capital from the bourgeoisie, to centralize all instruments of production in the hands of the state, i.e. of the proletariat organized as the ruling class; and to increase the total of productive forces as rapidly as possible.”

According to the Manifesto, then, in the course of a social revolution, the state is transformed from “a committee for managing the affairs of the bourgeoisie” into the ‘proletariat organized as the ruling class”. Writing 25 years later, in the Preface to the 1872 German edition of the Manifesto, Marx and Engels, though arguing that “the general principles laid down in the Manifesto are, on the whole, as correct today as ever”, single out the passages on the state as somewhat out of date:

• “In view of the gigantic strides of Modern Industry in the last 25 years, and of the accompanying improved and extended party organization of the working class, in view of the practical experience gained, first in the February Revolution [of 1848], and then, still more, in the Paris Commune, where the proletariat first held political  power for two whole months, this program has in some details become antiquated. One thing especially was proved by the Commune, viz., that “the working class cannot simply lay hold of the ready made state machinery and wield it for its own purposes.”

A year or so earlier, in a letter to Kugelmann, Marx had written:

• “The next attempt at the French Revolution must be: not, as in the past, to transfer the bureaucratic and military machinery from one hand to the other, but to break it up.”

In his The State and Revolution, written on the eve of the October 1917 Revolution while he was in hiding in Finland, Lenin looks at the evolution of Marx’s views on the state, and discusses a number of crucial questions: What is the “dictatorship of the proletariat”? What exactly does Engels mean when he writes of “the withering away of the state”? How has the right-wing of the international socialist movement perverted Marx’s ideas on the state and socialism? How does Marxism differ from Anarchism? In this forum, we’ll look at Lenin’s answers to these questions, questions that are all the more crucial for us in an era in which it daily becomes more and more evident that state intervention under capitalism serves the interests of capital rather than the interests of ordinary people.

Socialist Resistance Forum: Socialists and the Capitalist Recession

Speaker: Andy Kilmister

Tuesday 16th June 7.30pm, Bennetts Bar, Bennetts Hill, Birmingham City Centre

“…..the commercial crises….. by their periodical return, put the existence of the entire bourgeois society on its trial, each time more threateningly. In these crises, a great part not only of the existing products, but also of the previously created productive forces, are periodically destroyed. In these crises, there breaks out an epidemic that, in all earlier epochs, would have seemed an absurdity – the epidemic of over-production.”

Karl Marx 1848

The last few weeks have seen an increasing number of media reports of the `green shoots of economic recovery’ coupled with statements by financial analysts that the worst of the recession may soon be over – or may indeed already have passed.

Socialist Resistance has never taken the view that the current crisis is just about the weaknesses of the banks following the sub-prime debacle in the USA.

The financial turbulence that became apparent in August 2007 and then worsened dramatically in the autumn of 2008 is just one aspect of a broader process. This process involves the unravelling of many of the institutional frame-works that have governed the international economy since the mid -1980s and have laid the basis for neo-liberal politics. Economic growth in the last three decades has depended not just on rising debt but also on cheap commodity prices and ecological devastation within a context of global capital flows and imperialist exploitation. All of this is now thrown into question.

But the retreat of the most immediate threats of financial collapse and the temporary stabilisation of the banking sector does mark the end of a particular phase of the crisis and provides an opportunity for socialists to analyse the turmoil of the last year and to discuss likely developments in the future. We hope our new book Socialists and the Capitalist Recession will be a good basis for doing this.

In understanding what is happening to the economy at present Marx’s theories of crisis provide an invaluable starting point. The key dilemmas and tensions which lie at the centre of the current recession can be traced back to the themes highlighted by Marx over a century ago. This talk will look at three of them:

• Where will the demand come from to ensure economic growth and prevent mass unemployment, after the collapse of the housing bubble and debt-fuelled consumption? In societies like the USA and Britain, with massive inequalities and stagnating wages, how can ordinary people continue to afford to maintain consumption? What will be the impact of the current rise in government borrowing and the threat of higher taxes and public expenditure cuts to come?

• Are we heading for an era of global economic instability? Will increased demand from countries like China and India make up for slower growth in the USA and Europe? Will the dollar and euro maintain their values? What lies behind the fall in the pound?

• What is happening to profitability both in the financial and industrial sectors? Who is gaining and who is losing from the crisis and who will bear the future costs? How can capitalism deal with the mass of speculative investment left over from the boom?

Of course the outcome of the current crisis will not depend only on the background of global economic developments or on the strategies of employers and governments. More important than these will be the responses of workers and ordinary people to the attacks on living standards which the recession will bring. But in building campaigns and struggles to withstand these attacks we need to analyse what is happening in the economy and make predictions about what is coming next. This talk is intended to contribute to just such a discussion.

Part 1:

Part 2: